In an interesting recent article The Economist once again amuses the world by telling italians that Berlusconi is about as unfit to rule italy as he is likely to get elected. In 1994 and in 2001, Berlusconi went on to win the elections, and it doesn't look like he is likely to lose these ones either. A few of the details reported by the economist left me in shock, even though I have grown accustomed to the grotesque pantomime of the italian political scene:
Italy will go to the polls on April 13th and 14th to elect its 62nd post-war government — and the signs are that it will be led by Silvio Berlusconi, just like the 53rd, the 59th and the 60th.
This few figures show clearly why Italy is
not a modern country in a region where most other are becoming rapidly
post-modern. Take the example of Spain. A country that has had about 40 years of military dictatorship, held its first free elections a mere 29 years ago, has had 9 governments - all of which have laste the full five year term - and only 5 different prime ministers. Moreover, in four elections the winning party took home the absolute majority and all 9 times the government was composed by the winning party only, not by a coalition of parties. This has had the result of modernising the spanish economy, which in the past 15 years has caught up on all the disadvantage it had accumulated during the Franco era - makining it richer than Italy in GDP/capita terms. On social issues Zapatero has managed to break the taboos that plague all catholic countries and pass sensible laws ensuring civil and political rights for all, irrespective of their sexual tendencies, and solving many of the difficult ethical problems that are endemic in modern-day societies.
The economist goes on telling how between 2001 and 2006
[m]uch of his [Berlusconi's] energy, though, was devoted to furthering his own, or his friends', interests. Some of his efforts took the form of laws (like the country's statute of limitations) that helped him to avoid conviction, some
to attacks on the judiciary, some to the introduction of a voting system
partly designed to keep him in power.
and in a burst of optimistic wishful thinking voices the hope that
[p]erhaps, now that he is rid of most of his legal troubles, he can start to think more about a place in history as a great reformer and less about staying out of jail.
The clever journalists at the economist swiftly correct their idealistic excess, pointing out that
[it] is unlikely. He has never shown much interest in reform. He is more likely to have his eyes on a populist route to the presidency.
Indeed, the economist seems to be on top of its game in hinting at Berlusconi's future at the
Quirinale palace - Italy's Buckingham Palace, residence of the head of state. Having brought you this far I ask you to indulge me in a forecast about the evolutions of italian politics in the next half decade or so. In exchange I will show you how the same reforms can be brought about by a well-meaning head of government concerened about the public good, as much as by a scheming thief trying to stay out of jail.
As I explain
here the Prodi government fell in February 2007 because it could not keep some of the members of its 11 party strong coalition in check. Back then Italy badly needed a small number of profound constitutional reforms, including a reform of the electoral law (so that single parties may win elections and govern on their own), and a reform of the structure and operation of its main institutions (by this we mean that the government must be stronger with respect to the parliament and that the prime minister should become stronger with respect to his executive). Needless to say, the Prodi government did not have the numbers in parliament to make any significant political moves, with the result that Italy still badly needs those reforms. In democratic countries, when issues as fundamental as these are to be changed there needs to be a general consensus amongst all (or the large majority of) the major political forces.
But that is a well known story. After Prodi's collapse Berlusconi (who is surprisingly the head of italy's largest political party) refused to take part in the creation of a 'technical' government that would enact the necessay reforms. That is why we are having these elections. However, because of the highly undemocratic and inefficient electoral law (invention of Mr Berlusconi himself), it is likely that neither one of the two major candidates in next week's elections, Mr Veltroni - leader of the
PD (Democratic Party) - and Mr Berlusconi - leader of PDL - will emerge as the clear winner.
So what next? My guess is that a tecnical government will be created, with exponents of both centre-left and centre-right political forces, and given the charge of pursuing the afore mentioned necessary institutional reforms. At the end of the day it cannot be any other way. The reforms were as necessary three months ago as they are now, and given they were not undertaken then it seems logical to do them now. And if we consider the profound scope of the reforms it is clear that they ought to be done by a mixed
Grosse Koalition kind of government that is above (or in the middle of... eek!) partisan interests. Better late than never, as they say. So why were they not done before? why did we have to wait until now and hold another useless election from which no government will win? My guess is that these elections are being held to change the distribution of "democratic legitimation" (i.e. power) in favour of Berlusconi
qua the likely winner of them. This way, he (or his protegé, Mr Gianni Letta, one of the few skilled politicians in the italian political scene, particularly of the right) will be guaranteed the leadership and majority stake in the formation of the 'technical government'.
It'll take at least two or three years for the technical government to achieve anything, if it ever does, that is. Should it happen, it will put us in front of a new election in 2010 or 2011 in which the leader of the centre-right could not possibly be Mr Berlusconi, who would be 76. The likely leader of the centre-right could be Mr Gianni Letta himself - which is what makes me inclined to foresee him as the leader of the tecnical government for reforms. He will want to mark his political career as the leader of a modern, progressive right-wing with a strong success in being the national hero who brought Italy into its 3rd republic. You may consider this scenario another example of naive wishful thnking, of which liberal leftists like myself have often been accused. After all, this prospect would require exponenets of the italian right and left to step up their game and actually work in the country's interest rather than their own. Not to mention the alienation of small parties that the process would necessarily require. However I have a strong(ish) reason to believe that this may actually happen... Ironically, the solution to the italian stalemate may come from one of its primary causes: Mr Berusconi himself.
Berlusconi is a fantastic entrepreneur, thus a clever strategist too. His main objective, since he stepped into politics in 1994, is to stay out of jail. While in and out of government he was able to make laws to keep him out of jail. Once he is too old for government, there is only one solution that would keep him out and about: becoming Italy's President.
Like all parlamentary sistems the italian one is composed of a government and a parliament, whose job is to determine the political path for the country, as well as a president, whose job is to safeguard the constitution and generally make sure that the political side of things (government and parliament) doesn't pass laws (or commit any other acts)that go against italy's fundamental democratic principles. AS such he must be above the political confrontation, extracted from it, and operate in the exclusive interest of the country's institutional and democratic asset. Berlusconi profile clearly doesn't seem to fit the job description, but if he manages to go down as the leader (political if not formal) of the legislature that enacted the reforms Italy needs so badly, he will be a much stronger candidate for the position of president. Hence, he may well end up staying out of jail.
The timing also is incredibly appropriate: Berlusconi can take an active role in bringing about these reforms in the period between 2008 and 2011. He should then lay low for one or two years and let Gianni Letta officially take the lead of the italian right. By 2013, Giorgio Napolitano - the current president - will be out of office and his Parliament (dominated by the centre-right who will have won the elections in 2010 or 2011 - the only variable that seems radically unpredictable in my scheme) will elect him president!! Et voila, there he will be from atop the Roman Hill, chanting la-la la-la, l'etat c'est moi, l'etat c'est moi...